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منگل 8 جنوری 2008Tuesday, January 08, 2008
New Hampshire Primary
Today is the first primary. Most polls in New Hampshire show Barack Obama and John McCain ahead among the Democrats and the Republicans respectively. Here are my predictions.
| Democrat | My prediction | Actual vote |
|---|---|---|
| Barack Obama | 43% | 37% |
| Hillary Clinton | 30% | 39% |
| John Edwards | 20% | 17% |
| Bill Richardson | 6% | 5% |
| Dennis Kucinich | 1% | 1% |
| Republicans | My prediction | Actual vote |
|---|---|---|
| John McCain | 35% | 37% |
| Mitt Romney | 31% | 32% |
| Mike Huckabee | 12% | 11% |
| Ron Paul | 10% | 8% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 9% | 9% |
| Fred Thompson | 3% | 1% |
Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire is going to do wonders for Senator Obama’s campaign. He already got a big boost from Iowa. This is going to make things tough for Hillary Clinton. Looking back at elections since 1972, there are only two instances when the eventual Democratic or Republican nominee lost in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Once in 1972 when Senator Muskie won both and George McGovern won the Democratic nomination. Then in 1992, local Senator Tom Harkin won in Iowa while the eventual Democratic nominee Bill Clinton didn’t take part. In New Hampshire, Bill Clinton came a strong second but Paul Tsongas won the primary. Can Senator Clinton repeat her husband’s feat? It definitely is possible, but I would say it’s going to be difficult. The betting markets seem to agree as Obama is now a 2:1 favorite for the nomination there.
There is also the matter of the African American vote for Obama. Consider South Carolina where half the Democratic voters are African American. In mid-December, Obama was winning barely half of this vote. This should definitely change with Obama’s wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Let’s recall Jesse Jackson, a very different candidate but still instructive. In 1984 Democratic primaries, he came in third and won 77% of the African American vote. Then in 1988, he did very well, coming in 2nd and winning 11 primaries. He also got 92% of the African American vote.
UPDATE I: John “Thousand Years in Iraq” McCain has been projected the Republican winner by CNN.
UPDATE II: Hillary Clinton wins!
Tags: election, politics, president, primaries, united states
Posted by Zack at January 8, 2008 9:47 AM in Politics
Related Entries
- New Hampshire Primary
- Primary Campaign
- Super Tuesday
- Presidential Candidate Quiz
- Vote Early, Vote Often
- Pakistan Election Aftermath
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Comments
Posted by: بدتمیز (18 comments) at January 9, 2008 1:11 AM
Dear Zack,
TPS has published your fine interview here:
http://www.pakspectator.com/interview-with-blogger-zack-ajmal/
regards
Ghazala Khan
http://www.pakspectator.com
Posted by: Ghazala Khan (1 comments) at January 9, 2008 8:59 AM
Well, well, Obama (o-bomb-a) was obamaed (o-bam-a-d) in New Hampshire, and Clinton climbed victory’s hill for the first time. Meanwhile, my man, Edwards, just cannot seem to win primaries. Sigh! Maybe, he will fare better in the south.
On the Republican side, the minister and the hawk trade blows while the wishy-washy Morman trudges on, all under the sinister gaze of “America’s” govna.
Posted by: Captain_Arrrgh (140 comments) at January 9, 2008 7:31 PM
Badtameez: There are still Nevada, South Carolina and Florida and then Super Tuesday. Let’s see what happens.
Ghazala: Thanks.
Captain Arrrgh: I thought you would pick Edwards. Good luck with that! Can you vote in the primary in your state?
Amber has now decided to back Obama since Richardson has dropped out. My propagandizing at home has borne fruit.
Posted by: Zack (1749 comments) at January 11, 2008 11:27 AM
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iowa => go obama
new hampshire => no obama :(