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Georgia Primary Election 2010

For me, the primary election season started with an early July 4 gift from the Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp asking me to submit proof of my citizenship. Strangely, I have actually voted in an election since I registered to vote. According to the letter, my driver license record doesn’t show that I am a citizen, which is true since I last renewed my license before I naturalized as a US citizen. Efficient that I am, I even called Driver Services after becoming a citizen to ask if I needed to do something to update their records, but they said to wait until the next renewal. Thus, I spent my July 4th (slight exaggeration) making copies of my passport to send to the county registrar.

Georgia is a fairly red state and I live in an even redder part of it. So there are a bunch of contests where there are either no Democrats running or just one running unopposed as the likely sacrificial lamb for the November general election. I have a rule about voting against unopposed candidates. I simply write in some name and never vote for anyone running unopposed.

Now on to who is running in the Democratic primaries and who I am voting for tomorrow.

US Senate:
Incumbent: Johnny Isakson, Republican, who’s running for reelection

Democrats running in the primary are R. J. Hadley and Mike Thurmond. While neither of them will likely have much of a chance in the general election, I am voting for Mike Thurmond.

U.S. Representative, District 6:
The incumbent, Tom Price, is running unopposed in the Republican primary and there are no Democratic candidates.

Governor:
There are a bunch of candidates of which the two front-runners are former governor Roy Barnes (who lost his reelection bid in 2002 to current governor Sonny Perdue) and Attorney General Thurbert Baker.

I was planning on voting for Roy Barnes until he came out in support of the Arizona anti-immigrant law. Being an immigrant who has had his share of fuck-ups by USCIS, I am not at all in favor of states causing more problems for immigrants (both legal and illegal). Therefore, I am voting for Thurbert Baker.

Lt Governor:
Incumbent, L.S. Casey Cagle, is running unopposed in the Republican primary while Tricia Carpenter McCracken and Carol Porter.

Since I cannot find a website (or any other info) for McCracken, I am supporting Carol Porter.

Secretary of State:
Gail Buckner, the Democratic candidate in 2006 (who lost badly), is running again. Angela Moore, 3rd in teh crowded 2006 primary, is also running again. Gary Horlacher, the polygraph guy, is the most interesting candidate since he took a lie detector test to start off his campaign. There’s also Georganna Sinkfield.

I met Michael Mills at the start of the campaign season and liked him. So I am going to vote for Michael Mills.

Attorney General:
Ken Hodges and Rob Teilhet are running in the Democratic primary. I’ll vote for Rob Teilhet.

State School Superintendent:
None of the Democratic candidates, Beth Farokhi, Joe Martin, or Brian Westlake seem to be for education reform and testing, so I am in a quandary. I’ll likely vote for Brian Westlake.

Commissioner Of Labor:
Terry Coleman and Darryl Hicks are the two Democrats running. I’m planning to vote for Darryl Hicks.

Unopposed Statewide Races:
J.B. Powell is the only Democrat running for Commissioner of Agriculture while Mary Squires is the only one running for Commissioner of Insurance. Similarly, Keith Moffett is the only Democratic candidate for Public Service Commissioner, District 2 Eastern.

As is my practice, I’ll write in some random name in these races.

Georgia House District 46:
Paul Kennedy is the only Democratic candidate, so I won’t vote for him.

Georgia Senate District 56:
There is no Democratic candidate, but I have seen lots of signs for the three Republican candidates.

Fulton County Commission:
Commissioners for Districts 1 and 2 are elected at large in Fulton county. The Democratic candidates John Eaves (Dist 1) and Robert Pitts (Dist 2) are running unopposed in their primaries. Thus, I’ll write in someone random.

I live in District 3 where the only candidate for County Commissioner is Liz Hausmann running in the Republican primary.

Related Reading

The Campaign Manager: Running and Winning Local Elections
Pediatric Primary Care, 5e (Burns, Pediatric Primary Care)
Primary Grade Challenge Math
Election
Voter Turnout: A Social Theory of Political Participation (Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions)

North Georgia Snake Run

Over the Christmas break, a friend was visiting and we decided to head to our usual haunts in North Georgia. We hiked part of the Appalachian trail from Woody Gap.

In addition, we wanted to do our usual scenic drive through the Blue Ridge there. However, we realized that a good description of what Jim Baker named Snake Run is not available on the web any more (except in the wayback machine here.) So here is a description I salvaged as written by Jim Baker:

A scenic and challenging 250 mile day trip that crosses Blue Ridge four times.

One of the problems with communicating about various fun drives is that a road rarely offers the same challenges for very long. A road may have ten miles of totally insane turns, but be otherwise tame and boring. When a fair amount of time is required to get there to begin with, there needs to be more driving time to make it worthwhile. So a good run recommendation should tie several different roads together to stay in the twisties.

This run was mapped out by CSR from Miata.net, and I’ve run it twice, once as a performance run with other Miatas, and again the following weekend with his wife as a leaf-run. It’s called the “Snake Run” for a ten-mile portion of the run for want of a better collective name.

The route:

GA 60 from Dahlonega to Suches, GA 180 from Suches to US 19/129, US 129 South to Alt 75, Alt 75 North to GA 348 (Richard Russell Scenic Highway), GA 348 to GA 180, GA 180 to GA 180 Spur (Brasstown Bald), GA 180 from Brasstown Bald to GA 17/75, GA 17/75 South to Helen.

Mileage:

About 250 miles round-trip from Atlanta, depending on how you get to and from the run. About 90-100 of it is the actual run, and the run itself takes two-three hours to complete, depending on traffic and how much you care about your car. The entire trip can be done in just half a day.

Getting there:

From Atlanta, Dahlonega is most easily reached via GA 400/US 19. Take 400 north from Atlanta, and turn left at the intersection with GA 60. There are several gas stations here and more (plus various food) in Dahlonega just 5 miles further north on 60.

Take the opportunity to gas up in Dahlonega. There is only one gas station on the run, and it’s only 16 miles further up the road. There are three places to stop for snacks on the way, so that isn’t as important.

The run:

From Dahlonega, take 60 north to Suches. Two pitfalls: 60 takes a right-hand turn in downtown Dahlonega, and it splits off unmarked from US 19 about 8 miles north of there. Don’t turn until you see a sign for GA 180 on the right. And look for the sign, not a town, because Suches is essentially just a single convenience store.

GA 60 is a great run in its own right, all the way up to Copperhill, TN. This run only takes in about 16 miles of it, however, as it climbs the southern face of Blue Ridge, crosses it, and comes down into Suches. The first really nice twisties are here, but can be spoiled by traffic. 60 is actually a main corridor for local traffic in this area, so it’s pretty well traveled, even though it’s only two lanes.

GA 180 skirts along the northern slope of Blue Ridge and runs for about 30 miles in two sections. The next section of the route takes in the first 10 miles or so and is nicknamed “the Snake”. This road has some very tight twisties, including several hairpins, more esses than you can count, and one genuinely terrifying steep downhill off-camber turn. Take this road cautiously until you are familiar with it. A lot of these turns have zero visibility, and a choice between running into a cliff or falling off of one if you screw up.

Because it’s so impractical, there isn’t much local traffic that doesn’t actually live somewhere along this road. There will be a number of sports cars and motorcycles on any decent day, but these tend to to stay out of your way. The real problem is sightseers; especially during leaf season, this is a very scenic road. Watch out for brake fires and other comedy from people with ordinary cars and no clue what they are doing.

One scenic stop on 180: there is some almost unmarked park about halfway in with a fairly scenic pond that is glass-smooth if the wind is calm. Good photo-op, but otherwise not very exciting. There’s a parking fee of $3, so it may not be worth it to take a break only 20 miles into the run.

GA 180 runs into US 19/129. For those who are into this, Vogel State Park is at right by this intersection. Take a right at this intersection and prepare to stretch your legs. US 19/129 South climbs back up Blue Ridge from the north, and then crosses the ridge and heads down towards Turner’s Corner. Several of the uphill portions of this stretch have a passing lane, which is nice for working out frustrations if you got caught on 180 behind a minivan. There are some nice esses with visible banking transitions here and a few long sweepers that beg to hang the tail out, and visibility is much improved over 180. A decently handling car can go much faster than posted limits here. However, again, this is a fairly major corridor and there’s a lot of slow traffic on it. Be prepared for people who come to almost complete stops right in the middle of turns.

Turner’s Corner, like Suches, basically consists of a single store. I haven’t stopped here but it looks to be of the quaint/folk art/Cracker Barrel-without-the-restaurant school of country stores. It’s a decent place to stop for a Coke.

Continuing on south on 129 (19 splits off at Turner’s Corner) is the most boring part of the route. It will be fairly straight two-lane highway for the next 15 or so miles. Look for GA 75 Alternate on the left about six or seven miles south of Turner’s Corner, and take this turn. Again, fairly smooth, higher-speed roads, nice scenery, but not challenging. Continue on 75 Alternate until you reach GA 348, the Richard B. Russell Scenic Highway. Those familiar with the area will recognize that we are now only about two miles from Helen, the end of the run, but we have about 30 miles still to go.

348 is a left turn off 75 Alternate. It will pass north over Blue Ridge again, and for driving challenge, it’s on par with the Snake, very low-visibility turns, major elevation changes, and a lot of variety in the type and severity of the corners. 348 also has easily half a dozen pull-offs for photo-ops. There is some kind of lodge at the ridge gap, but I’ve never stopped there. 348 terminates back on the second leg of GA 180. Take a right turn onto 180.

Unlike the Snake, this portion of 180 is much tamer. It’s more challenging than the portions of 129 and 75 Alt you just left, but it’s higher-speed sweepers rather than tight esses. The major attraction of this leg is 180 Spur, which comes up after about 6 miles on the left and which takes you to the highest point in Georgia that you can reach with a car. The peak of Brasstown Bald is 4,784 feet above sea level, and the parking lot at the foot of the trail is about 400 feet below that. The approach up the spur is steep and insanely twisted. It’s so steep, in fact, that coupled with the elevation, we’ve experienced RPM dropoff in gears higher than second. At the summit there is a small store and a coke machine, if you feel like stopping. Parking is, again, $3, but if you don’t stop you needn’t pay the fee.

Going back down the spur is easily the most dangerous part of this run. It’s very tough on the brakes, even with compression braking, and tight turns, gravity and terrified tourists from Vero Beach all conspire against you. Beware.

At the bottom of the spur, a left turn back onto 180 will put you off into a leisurely drive that lets your brakes cool off and your jaw unclench. The next turn is at the end of 180, where it runs into GA 17/75. Take a right turn here, and you are on the last leg of the run.

17/75 South is very much like US 19/129; it crosses Blue Ridge for the fourth and final time of this run, and features uphill passing lanes, higher speed turns and better visibility. 17/75 runs all the way into Helen, the end of our run.

Getting back:

Helen is a nice stop at the end of the run for good sit-down food. There are a lot of restaurants there, mostly German. Alt Heidelberg is particularly good, but get the wurst sampler and avoid the weiner schnitzel. Sometimes, especially during leaf season/Octoberfest, traffic into Helen can look like 5 o’clock rush hour. But if you’ve never seen Helen, you owe it to yourself to see it at least once; imagine if Walt Disney had gotten halfway through making a replica German village, then developed a heroin addiction and died in despair. It’s a tourist trap from hell, with decent German food. The homemade candy shops are also excellent, but, apart from that, unless you are looking for a $500 cuckoo clock or collectible crystal figurines, it’s garbage. The fire hydrants are painted like little people. Helen is over the top, no kidding.

If traffic is too terrible going into Helen, you can take a turn on to 75 Alternate just north of Helen and backtrack your route down that road. A couple of miles down on the left is a country cooking restaurant called, really, The Goofy Rooster. The chicken wings are good.

Whatever you decide, both 75 through Helen and 75 Alternate north of it eventually get back to US 129 north of Cleveland. In Cleveland, you can either continue on 129 to Gainesville and return to Atlanta on 985, or take GA 115 back to your starting point in Dahlonega, and backtrack down 400 from there.

And here is a Google map I created for the drive.

Related Reading

Snakes Can't Run: A Mystery (Thomas Dunne Books)
Detour (North Georgia Days)
Scenic Driving Florida, 3rd
Georgia Off the Beaten Path®, 10th: A Guide to Unique Places (Off the Beaten Path Series)
Drive

Election Day 2009

Election Day is Tuesday (I support Why Tuesday? in changing it to a weekend or a holiday), November 3. Since this is an off year, there aren’t any big contests.

Here in the city of Milton in North Fulton county, we have some city council elections.

The current mayor, Joe Lockwood, is running unopposed. So we are left with three city council members. Interestingly, the council members are elected at large, i.e. by all of Milton, with the condition being that the candidates must reside in the district which they want to represent. The at-large election means that voters like me have to think strategically about the balance of power in the city council rather than just the suitability of individual candidates.

Two good resources for the election are the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Voter Guide, which provides information about all of the Atlanta metro area, and the Access Milton blog for local Milton news.

The main issue for the city council election is development and growth. This area of Fulton county used to be very rural in the recent past and even now there are big farms in most of Milton. However, there has been some development too, especially in the Crabapple area and on Highway 9. Lots of people here want to keep the “rural character” and oppose extension of sewer and “high density” development. I put high density in quotes because around here 1 acre lots count as high density. We come from much higher density of course. We lived in the AtlantaPiscataway, NJ (density: 2,688.6/sq mi). Milton’s density is about 556/sq mi.

I don’t mind growth. In fact, I like growth. And I don’t like the idea of local governments limiting growth and encumbering the free market. Of course, growth can be dumb or smart. And mindless growth at the time of a real estate boom can leave lots of ghost neighborhoods. But that is something that can be managed such that the city grows naturally and in a smart and sustainable way. I should probably also mention that I live on a quarter acre lot which is tiny by Milton standards. I don’t know why the people who like free markets and dislike the government, like they do here in North Fulton, are so big on using the municipal government to stop the evil developers.

Let’s look at the individual races for the Milton City Council.

In District 1, where I live, the contest is between the incumbent Karen Thurman. According to her detractors, Thurman is in the pocket of developers. Wolff wants to keep the rural character of the city. I was leaning towards Thurman but what pushed me over to her was the discovery that Wolff was part of the dishonest Swift Boat Sailors & POWs for Truth campaign against John Kerry in 2004.

In District 3, incumbent Bill Lusk is the only one on the ballot but Al Trevillyan is running as a write-in candidate. Al’s basically the anti-sewer candidate. I am not entirely sure about this one, especially since I can’t find much information about Lusk’s position on the issues. But I am leaning towards voting for Lusk.

In District 5, incumbent Tina D’Aversa is running against Joe Longoria. D’Aversa is supporting the challenges to Lusk and Thurman, so she’s on the anti-development side, though Milton’s local politics has been very acrimonious and personal, so there might be more to it than a difference of opinion on the issues. I must say I have found reading D’Aversa’s website, press releases and campaign literature difficult because of over-the-top self-praise. Also, D’Aversa has an ethics complaint filed against her for trying to bribe her opponent to withdraw. I agree with Longoria that Milton’s top challenge is raising enough revenue to provide good services and infrastructure. Thus, I am supporting Longoria.

Going over the candidates’ biographies, it’s interesting that I am supporting a Georgia Tech graduate (I am one too) and two engineers (Software and Civil Engineering) while I am an Electrical Engineer.

UPDATE (Nov 3 11:57am): Just voted at my local precinct. There was almost nobody there.

UPDATE (Nov 4 8:09am): The candidates I endorsed for the city council, Thurman, Lusk and Longoria, won. The turnout was 19.4%.

Related Reading

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Way to Happiness: An Inspiring Guide to Peace, Hope and Contentment
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Three to Get Married

Christmas Photos

In keeping with the title of the blog, here are some photographs from last Christmas.

Let’s start with Atlanta: Midtown (Atlantic Station) and Buckhead (Pink Pig train at Lenox).

Atlantic Station train
Atlantic Station Christmas tree
Lenox Pink Pig ride
 

And some photos from the Lake Lanier Islands Magical Nights of Lights.

Nativity play
 

The day we went to Stone Mountain, the weather wasn’t very nice. Their laser light show could not be seen because of fog.

Stone Mountain 1
Stone Mountain 2
 

The Christmas lights at Callaway Gardens.

 

Related Reading

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Weird Georgia: Your Travel Guide to Georgia's Local Legends and Best Kept Secrets

Georgia Senate Runoff Analysis

This is the last in my series analyzing the 2008 election in the state of Georgia. I looked at statewide numbers in my first article. The next article looked at county level results and also racial polarization. In the 3rd article, I analyzed the results in Fulton county and specifically the precincts in which our team of Obama volunteers worked.

Georgia has a law according to which a winning candidate needs 50% + 1 of the votes cast, otherwise there is a runoff election between the top two candidates. In the general election on November 4, incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss failed to get 50% and thus was forced into a runoff with the Democratic candidate Jim Martin. Interestingly, this was the second runoff for Jim Martin this year since he had won in a runoff election in the Democratic primary too after no one got 50% in the crowded filed of Democratic Senate candidates in the primary election.

I did not work for the Jim Martin campaign and in fact was fairly certain that he would lose the runoff because Georgia is still a Republican state and there are a lot more habitual Republican voters here than Democratic ones. The Obama campaign had done a good job of registering voters and then bringing the sporadic voters out to vote for the general election, but there was no way that could be repeated for a runoff. Also, from our voter contact when we were volunteering for the Obama campaign, we knew that Sarah Palin was quite popular among Republicans here, perhaps more than John McCain (McCain got 31.6% of the vote and came in 2nd behind Huckabee and barely ahead of Romney in the Feb 5 primary.)

Chambliss Martin Total
Votes % Votes % Votes
General 1,867,090 49.75% 1,757,419 46.83% 3,752,577
Runoff 1,226,730 57.46% 908,222 42.54% 2,134,952

As you can see, a lot less people voted in the runoff than in the general election. Let’s look at the voter retention rate, i.e. the number of votes for a candidate in the runoff as a proportion of the votes in the general election.

Chambliss Martin Total
Vote Retention 65.7% 51.7% 56.9%

While only about 57% of the voters in the general voted in the runoff, they were not evenly distributed between the parties. Democrat Jim Martin barely managed to get half of his voters to pull the lever for him again while Republican Saxby Chambliss was successful with almost two-thirds of his voters. This is why the Republican margin increased from 2.92% on November 4 to 14.92% on December 2.

Let’s plot the percentage of votes the two candidates got in each county in the general and the runoff elections. The circles represent individual counties and their area is proportional to the number of registered voters in that county.

Chambliss percent general vs runoff

Martin percent general vs runoff

Chambliss performed better in all counties and Martin performed worse in almost all in the runoff when compared with the general election.

Another way to look at the data is to compare the vote retention rates for Chambliss and Martin.

Vote retention Chambliss vs Martin

Chambliss got about 60-70% of his general election vote in most counties, especially the more populous counties while Martin only got 45-60% in most. The only counties close to parity in terms of vote retention were really small.

I was wondering whether there was any pattern to the vote retention in terms of partisanship. So I plotted the Chambliss and Martin retention rates against the percentage in that county that voted for Obama on November 4.

Martin vote retention vs Obama vote

This is a slight upward trend as the counties get more Democratic. However it is still very low.

Chambliss vote retention vs Obama vote

We see much less of a pattern here.

Related Reading

Martin
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Georgia Election Analysis III

I did some analysis of the Presidential election in the state of Georgia in two installments. Today I’ll look at Fulton county where I live as well as the specific precincts in Alpharetta, Milton and South Atlanta where our team worked as volunteers for the Obama campaign.

Year D R Turnout %Turnout
2000 57.53% 39.68% 264,276 65.06%
2004 59.35% 39.99% 330,791 74.15%
2008 67.07% 32.09% 405,531 73.11%

There was a 15.3% swing towards Obama in Fulton county compared to Kerry in 2004. The turnout, based on the number of registered voters, stayed constant from 2004 to 2008. However, if we use the voting age population estimates (VAP) for Fulton county, we get the following turnout rates:

Year Turnout based on VAP
2000 42.30%
2004 48.00%
2008 52.72%

This shows a bigger turnout in 2008. One reason for the discrepancy between the turnout in the first table and this one is that the Obama campaign focused a lot on voter registration this year and thus got more people registered.

Also, please note that the VAP turnout estimate is probably lower than the real turnout which should be calculated as a proportion of the voting eligible population.

Out of the 3,924,440 votes cast for President in Georgia this year, 2,084,179 (or 53.11%) were cast during advance/early voting or by absentee mail-in. In Fulton county, 184,240 votes (45.42%) were cast early, absentee or provisional out of a total of 405,628 votes cast. This is very unusual for Georgia and Fulton as can be seen in the table below for Fulton county. (This shows the numbers for the 2004 general election for President, the 2006 election for Governor, the 2008 Presidential Primary on Super Tuesday and the 2008 general Presidential election.)

Year Absentee/Early/Provisional votes
2004 Prez 12.68%
2006 Gov 11.76%
2008 Prez Primary 7.65%
2008 Prez 45.42%

In the 2008 general election, the Obama campaign tried to get everyone to vote early. The effect of this can be seen in the early voting numbers in Fulton county where Obama had a 49.5% lead in early voting compared to a 22.9% lead on polling day itself.

The large numbers of early voters have complicated my precinct level analysis. The precinct level data does not include early or absentee votes which are listed separately as one per county. Still let’s see what we can conclude for our precincts.

For the Get Out the Vote (GOTV) campaign in October and then the first four days of November, we were based in the South Atlanta precincts, 12E1, 12J and 12T, which are just north of Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Airport. These precincts are heavily Democratic (more than 90%) but there are a lot of sporadic voters there. So the main task was to get the vote out.

Election 12E1 12J 12T
Voted %Turnout Voted %Turnout Voted %Turnout
2004 518 49.5% 1024 59.7% 566 62.3%
2006 224 22.1% 473 29.2% 581 35.8%
2008 Primary 280 27.5% 564 34.6% 609 39.1%
2008 747 55.1% 1,360 67.3% 1,232 68.0%

Thus, turnout as a percentage of registered voters increased from 57.4% to 64.3% while actual number of people who voted in these three precincts increased from 2,108 to 3,339, a 58% increase in the number of voters. Compare this 58% increase to a 22.6% increase over the whole of Fulton county and a 19.6% increase over all of Georgia. I am actually pleased at these numbers and I am sure all of our Obama team would be too.

Let’s now look at the precincts in Alpharetta and Milton where we made the most calls, starting in August, for identifying voters, persuading them and then getting them out to vote. The table below shows the Republican advantage over Democrats. For the 2008 Presidential Primary, I added the votes for all the Republican Presidential candidates together and did the same for the Democrats. Let’s take the example of ML01A in the 2008 general election, McCain got 73.5% and Obama got 25.3%, which means a Republican advantage of 73.5-25.3=48.2%.

Precinct 2006 2008 Primary 2008
AP07B +66.0% +33.2% +40.9%
ML01A +64.0% +34.4% +48.2%
ML02A +67.4% +40.8% +62.6%
ML02B +68.0% +45.2% +57.5%
ML03 +66.9% +45.7% +59.5%
ML04 +65.2% +38.5% +56.5%
ML05 +48.9% +14.9% +37.7%
ML06 +29.9% -11.4% +8.2%
ML07 +65.1% +41.8% +52.0%

I couldn’t find the data for the 2004 Presidential election for the Milton (MLxx) precincts but AP07B had a 42.9% Republican advantage in 2004.

Before I opine on those results, let’s look at the turnout (as a percentage of registered voters) in these precincts:

Precinct 2008 Turnout
AP07B 44.6%
ML01A 44.6%
ML02A 55.3%
ML02B 55.3%
ML03 52.5%
ML04 44.7%
ML05 44.2%
ML06 41.9%
ML07 54.2%

We already know that about half of Georgia and Fulton county voters voted early. The early voters are not listed in the last two tables for the Alpharetta/Milton precincts because they are not reported that way by Fulton county. Looking at the election day turnout for Milton, it seems that fewer than half of the voters voted early.

Because we only have the vote breakdown by party for those who voted in person at their polling location on November 4 and a significant number of voters had voted early in 2008, we cannot really say what the margin between McCain and Obama was in Alpharetta and Milton. There is no reason to believe that the early voters had the same partisan distribution as those on election day. In fact, there is reason to believe that the early voters were more likely to be Obama supporters. The Obama campaign had been working hard asking people to vote early. Also, in the whole of Fulton county, Obama had a 49.5% advantage in early voting compared to a 22.9% advantage on polling day. Thus, the very large Republican margin in the Milton precincts in 2008 is most likely not correct. I can say with certainty that McCain won all those precincts except ML06 but probably with a somewhat smaller margin. Even then, Republicans had a huge advantage here in North Fulton. Unfortunately, we don’t have any way of finding out whether our team was able to reduce that Republican advantage or not.

Next: A look at the Senate runoff between Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss.

Related Reading

McCain's Promise: Aboard the Straight Talk Express with John McCain and a Whole Bunch of Actual Reporters, Thinking About Hope
Way to Happiness: An Inspiring Guide to Peace, Hope and Contentment
The Campaign Manager: Running and Winning Local Elections
Food Lovers' Guide to® Atlanta: The Best Restaurants, Markets & Local Culinary Offerings (Food Lovers' Series)
Weird Georgia: Your Travel Guide to Georgia's Local Legends and Best Kept Secrets

Georgia Election Analysis II

Continuing with my election analysis in Georgia, my data source is the Secretary of State’s website:

Let’s start with a graph showing Obama’s share of the vote in each Georgia county versus Kerry’s share four years ago. Please note that the size of the circles is proportional to the total number of registered voters in that county.

Obama vote vs Kerry vote

Since there was an 11.4% swing towards Obama compared to Kerry, a majority of the counties show a larger percentage for Obama as compared to Kerry. This is especially true of large (in population) counties. Since Georgia has 159 counties, let’s redo the same graph separately for the large, middle and small counties.

In the largest 53 counties (min number of registered voters 17,354 and max 554,682), only the most Republican counties got more Republican compared to 2004.
Largest counties swing

In the middle 53 counties (registered voters ranging from 8,182 to 17,018), the situation was a lot more mixed, but Obama did lose a lot of ground in some.
Swing in middle counties

In the 53 counties with the lowest populations (registered voters ranging from 1,371 to 7,988), Obama did better in some and worse in others. However, these rural counties don’t have many people and probably didn’t matter much at all for the Presidential election.
Swing in least populated counties

Since one major reason for Obama’s better performance was the higher turnout and vote from African Americans, let’s look at the same data, i.e. Obama’s total vote share compared to Kerry’s, but by categorizing counties by how white they are. I am using the percentage of registered white voters in a county as a proxy for the percent population that’s non-Hispanic White in a county.

The whitest third of the counties are at least 77% white. Do note that the scales of this graph are different from the earlier graphs. Obama did worse in the smaller, whiter counties than Kerry and better in the bigger white counties. But he didn’t get more than about 35% of the vote in any of them.
Swing in the whitest counties

The middle third counties by white percentage of the population have about 64% to 77% whites. Obama generally did better than Kerry here. Obama’s share of the vote varied from 27-45% in these counties except for Clarke county (65%) which contains Athens and the University of Georgia.
Swing in the mid-white counties

In the bottom third counties, the white percentage is 18-64% and Obama did very well here.
Swing in least white counties

Let’s look at Obama’s share of the vote in each county plotted against the percentage of whites and blacks in that county.

White percentage vs Obama vote share

Black percentage vs Obama vote share

The red line in both graphs is the least squares fit. As is obvious, Obama’s share of the vote decreases as the percentage of whites increases in a county.

In the previous two graphs, we looked at Obama’s share of the total vote. So we cannot completely tease out the effects of a large African American turnout or the how the white voters voted in each county. Since we can’t have the numbers for Obama’s share of the white vote in each county, we’ll make some simplifying assumptions to guesstimate it:

  1. The African American turnout in each county was the same as the total voter turnout in that county. This is approximately true at the state level, but could be wrong for some counties.
  2. 98% of the African American voters voted for Obama. This is the percentage at the state level.
  3. The number of voters who are not African American or White is small enough (5%) that we can approximate the white vote share by simply excluding the African American vote.

We know this procedure gives us only a guesstimate of the nonblack vote since in one small county (Clay) this results in Obama getting -1.85% of the nonblack vote. In the other 158 counties, Obama’s share of the nonblack vote varies from 4.4% (Randolph county) to 54.6% (Dekalb county).

White population percentage vs Obama share of nonblack vote

Black population percentage vs Obama share of nonblack vote

The red lines in both graphs are LOESS fits.

The first thing apparent in these two graphs is that Obama did particularly well among whites in most of the populous counties as they show up outliers at the top. Among the other counties, there is not a significant pattern, but it does look like Obama’s nonblack vote share is lowest in counties where African American population is in the 20-30% range.

Razib did a similar analysis of racial polarization in Mississippi.

Charles Franklin analyzed the white vote for Obama at the state level. Nate Silver saw that data and noticed that most of the states where Obama performed worse than Kerry among whites were those where Obama did not campaign.

Andrew Gellman, at his must-read blog Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State, looked at Obama’s vote share divided by race in the West, Northeast, South and Midwest. He also showed the estimated nonblack vote by county for all of the US.

Andrew Gellman also looked at the voting preferences of rich and poor voters in both red and blue states in the 2008 election, something which is the topic of his book Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do.

Finally, Michael McDonald estimates the voter turnout from the vote eligible population.

My revised national turnout rate for those eligible to vote is 61.6% or 131.3 million ballots cast for president. This number does not include an approximate 1.4 million under and over votes, for an estimated total 132.7 million total ballots cast. This represents an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the 60.1% turnout rate of 2004, but falls short of the 1968 turnout rate of 62.5%.

His estimate of turnout for Georgia is 61.1%, up from 56.2% in 2004.

Next: An analysis of the precincts in Alpharetta, Milton and Atlanta where our team worked.

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Georgia Election Analysis I

This is the first in a series of posts looking at the Presidential election results in the state of Georgia.

Let’s start with the top line numbers from the last three Presidential elections:

Year Democrat Republican
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
2000 1,116,230 43.2% 1,419,720 55.0%
2004 1,366,155 41.4% 1,914,256 58.0%
2008 1,844,137 46.9% 2,048,744 52.1%

In 2000, Al Gore lost Georgia by 11.8 points and Kerry lost by 16.6 points. Obama has reduced that to 5.2 points, which is a swing of 11.4 percent from 2004. This swing is greater than the national swing of 9.2%.

Let’s look at the Georgia exit polls from 2000, 2004 and 2008.

During the last 8 years, the composition of the voters has changed a lot. The table below shows the percentage of voters who belonged to a specific race or ethnic group.

Race 2000 2004 2008
White 81% 70% 65%
African American 19% 25% 30%
Hispanic - 4% 3%

That’s quite a change in voter demographics, Compare that to the census estimate of population (in 2006) of 58.9% non-Hispanic whites, 29.9% African Americans and 7.5% Hispanics. This shows that African Americans, probably for the first time in Georgia history, voted in proportion of their population. The credit for that goes to the Obama campaign’s voter registration and Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) efforts.

Turnout this year was a little lower than 2004, mostly because of the high turnout among whites in 2004.

2000 2004 2008
Total 69% 77% 76%
White 71% 80% 78%
African American 63% 72% 75%

Since I am estimating White and African American turnout in 2008 from the exit polls, it might be prone to some error. We’ll know more when all the detailed data is released by the Georgia Secretary of State.

If African American turnout could be higher, Obama might have gotten closer by at most 1 point. However, do remember that in absolute numbers 41% more African Americans voted this year compared to 2004. The increase in the number of white voters was less than 9%.

The next table shows why Obama lost. It tells us what portion of whites and blacks voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate in the last three elections.

Race 2000 2004 2008
White 35% 23% 23%
African American 86% 88% 98%

Obama needed around 27% or more of the white vote. However, he got the same proportion as Kerry.

Looking at voter groups, 37% of all voters (i.e. 57% of white voters) were white evangelicals. Obama got only 10% among them. Since he got 23% among all whites, so Obama got 40% of the white non-evangelical vote. Compare to Kerry who got 16% of white evangelical vote and 30% of white non-evangelical vote. Also, compare nationally where Obama got 43% of the white vote and 24% of white evangelical voters, i.e. Obama got a majority (53%) of non-evangelical white vote nationally.

Young voters nationally flocked to Obama in this election, a lot more than in recent elections. This can be seen in the graphs here.

18-29 30-44
US GA US GA
All 66% 48% 52% 56%
White 54% 20% 41% 32%

2008 election US GA age race

The low number (20%) for 18-29 year old white voters in Georgia surprised me a lot. It shows how difficult it might be for Democrats to win Georgia even in the future.

Nationally, Obama did somewhat better with white voters than Kerry in 2004. However, there were regional variations. In Appalachia and parts of the South, Obama got a smaller percentage of the white vote than Kerry did.

Southern counties that voted more heavily Republican this year than in 2004 tended to be poorer, less educated and whiter, a statistical analysis by The New York Times shows. Mr. Obama won in only 44 counties in the Appalachian belt, a stretch of 410 counties that runs from New York to Mississippi. Many of those counties, rural and isolated, have been less exposed to the diversity, educational achievement and economic progress experienced by more prosperous areas.

The increased turnout in the South’s so-called Black Belt, or old plantation-country counties, was visible in the results, but it generally could not make up for the solid white support for Mr. McCain. Alabama, for example, experienced a heavy black turnout and voted slightly more Democratic than in 2004, but the state over all gave 60 percent of its vote to Mr. McCain. (Arkansas, however, doubled the margin of victory it gave to the Republican over 2004.)

Less than a third of Southern whites voted for Mr. Obama, compared with 43 percent of whites nationally.

Do look at this table and a map of the US showing county-level electoral shifts.

MSNBC First Read gives the details of Obama vote share among whites.

In 13 [states], Obama received less than 35% of the white vote. His three lowest performing states: Alabama (10%), Mississippi (11%), and Louisiana (14%). The other 10: GA (23%), SC (26%), TX (26%), OK (29%), AR (30%), UT (31%), AK (32%), WY (32%), ID (33%), and TN (34%). On the other hand, Obama won the white vote in 18 states and DC: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN. NH. NY. OR, RI, WA, WI and VT. Obama’s lowest percentage of the white vote he received in a state that he won: NC (35%). The highest percentage of the white vote Obama received in a state he lost: MT (45%).

Razib has a few maps showing Obama’s performance among white voters in all the states compared to Kerry’s performance in 2004 as well as to the national average for white voters this year.

Pollster shows that in states with higher than about 20-25% of African American population, Obama performed poorly among white voters.

If you are interested in comparing Democratic or Republican performance over the years in Presidential elections in Georgia, Dave Leip’s Atlas of US Presidential elections has the historical results in a convenient table format.

All things considered, Barack Obama did very well in Georgia. I was always skeptical about the Democrats winning Georgia, except in a national landslide. How well did the Obama campaign bigwigs think they could do in Georgia can be gauged from this anecdote from August 27.

[Obama’s election manager David Plouffe] said that the campaign’s target in Georgia is about 47% of the vote, owing to Ex-Rep. Bob Barr’s ability to siphon votes away from John McCain.

In the end, Bob Barr didn’t do well at all, but Obama got his 47% of the vote. It looks to me like the Obama campaign knew what it was doing. Do you remember the Obama spreadsheet that leaked just after Super Tuesday and was remarkably accurate about the primary results?

There’s a lot more I want to analyze, including county and precinct level data, precincts in which our team worked. So tune in for more analysis and rambling soon.

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Georgia: Battleground

I have been really busy recently and haven’t had time to blog. Volunteering for the Obama campaign has been fun but also kept me busy. We had phonebanking events every day last week with one at our home on Friday. Then on Saturday and Sunday, we went door to door contacting voters in South Atlanta to go out and vote on Tuesday. That’s also what we are doing today.

So how did Georgia become competitive? In 2000, Bush won Georgia 55%-43% and in 2004 increased the margin to 58%-41%. But in 2008, you can see for yourself:

Georgia is now a battleground state. McCain is leading Obama by only 1.7% here according to Pollster which “averages” all polls. Also, the betting market Intrade has Obama winning Georgia at 27.5%.

In addition, in 2004 African Americans were 27.2% of registered voters and contributed 25.4% of the votes. According to the latest voter registration statistics, African Americans are now 29.9% of registered voters.

In early voting since September 22, we have had 2,020,839 voters already cast their votes, which is 61.5% of the total number of votes cast (3,285,140) in 2004. Assuming a turnout of 80% (higher than 77% in 2004), this would mean that 43.9% have already voted. Among these early voters, African Americans comprised 34.9% of the total. We are hoping that African American turnout remains high even on Election Day tomorrow and puts Barack Obama over the top in Georgia.

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Politics

Pine Mountain, GA

For the Fourth of July weekend, we went to Pine Mountain, GA with some friends.

The kids loved the Wild Animal Safari there.

deer
zebras
zebra
deer
cow
camel
buffalo
rhea
zony
rhinoceros
antlers
peacock
 

We wanted to go to Callaway Gardens for the July 4 fireworks, but there was a huge rainstorm. So we visited Callaway Gardens the next day.

butterfly
butterfly
butterfly
butterfly
flower
lake
duck
turtle
flower
leaf
plant
bananas
leaves
colorful plants
colorful leaf
 

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